#CNflow 2016.01.18-22

Last updated: 22nd 16:30 HKT

PROPERTY – Shenzhen property market set to cool 2016 H2: Industry insiders quoting a continued rise in H1, followed by a cool off in H2, some districts might see falling prices. Shenzhen property supported by positive demographics, over 80% of population are migrants, many of whom young. 2015 buying trend which saw new house prices rise 40%, was supported by wealthy managers and entrepreneurs in technology and new industries. Easing of local mortgage restrictions in 2014 and 2015, combined with consecutive policy rate cuts helped spur the market. 深圳楼市呈现宽松信贷繁荣

FAI – China Railway Co. 2016 investment plans: Total investment of Rmb800bn (-0.238bn on 2015). Planned investment in passenger rail +10% YoY, freight +2% YoY. 铁总:铁路固定资产投资8千亿

FINANCE – Reports of banks refusing stock as collateral: Xinhua reports some Shanghai banks are no longer accepting SME board and ChiNext stocks as collateral, rather only CSI300 index stocks. Furthermore for these blue chip stocks, collaterals haircuts have increased from 50% to 60-65%. 股权质押再成下跌“替罪羊”银行称:未有过激调整

FISCAL – 2015 total tax revenues +6.6% to Rmb11.06tn: Tertiary sector comprised 54.8% of all tax revenues, +1.3% year on year, and 9.7% higher than the secondary sector share. Tertiary sector revenues increased by 7.6% YoY, vs secondary sector increase of 5.5%. Tertiary sector made up 80% of all tax income increase in 2015, 19% of which attributed to Internet services. 2015年税收收入比上年增6.6%

Below is a quick comparison of annual tax revenue growth vs. GDP. Note there are ongoing tax reforms such as switching from business tax to V.A.T. which can account for some small reductions in tax revenues. For a fairer comparison, 2014 figure has had the export tax rebates readded, although still shows a year on year decline.

 

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