Here are the top fifty Chinese media predictions for 2015, originally published in Chinese on 1st January 2015. These capture the current social and economic trends in China, particularly the pressures weighing on the average salary man and woman. The media can report on how China lifted millions out of poverty, and on improving conditions in coastal factories. But after 30 years of opening up and reform, today’s workforce faces pressures of a different nature, as they must constantly find their place in an increasingly market driven economy. Like anywhere in the world, respite can be found in black humour, hence some of these predictions are served with a side dish of sarcasm, and garnished with a pinch of salt.
Translator: Sylvia L (Contributor)
Top 50 predictions for 2015
Mankind has predicted its demise many times. The 1972 book ‘The Limits to Growth’ predicted that the limits of mankind’s social development would be reached by 2015. But things are not all that bad. At least in 2015, the smart watch that Steve Jobs predicted 30 years ago will be worn on the wrists of 30 million people.
Whilst economists pay close attention to the national economy and peoples livelihoods, and businessmen discover new business opportunities, we are going to discern this year’s trends through the following predictions.
- China will push through with structural reforms which will slow down economic growth. The new normal for the next few years will be China GDP growth between 6% and 7%.
- The Central Bank will again cut deposit reserve ratio and interest rates, but the expected bull market still can’t help pay off those credit card bills and real estate mortgages.
- The deposit insurance scheme will definitely be introduced, with maximum compensation of only 500,000 yuan, no matter the bank size.
- There will continue to be a wave of P2P platform bankruptcies. Those who expect to obtain high interest with only small amounts of money will find no help from the authorities, instead burn with anxiety and helplessness, longing to cry but unable to muster the tears.
- The salary of wage-earners will continue to rise but no chance they’ll double. At present, the salary level in Chinese manufacturing is over six times that of Southeast Asia. ‘Made in China’ will begin to feel a sense of crisis.
- To make money domestically, but manage wealth overseas. Gamble on overseas stock markets, mortgage overseas houses and buy insurance in Hong Kong. Only jet lag can dent the Chinese quest for high returns.
- The price of oil will remain steady. Whilst global crude oil prices will suffer huge roller coaster like swings, oil price movements in China will still remain under the control of the National Development and Reform Commission.
- China will restart its nuclear power projects. Coastal nuclear power stations will switch on one after another, at the same time supplying clean energy and plenty to worry about.
- An increasing number of foreign companies and major companies will grant smog allowances to their employees who work in Beijing or other metropolis with severe smog.
- The anti-corruption campaign will march on, making it harder for public officials to earn a living. Working as a government officer will slip from the top three occupations most favoured by mother-in-laws.
- Only the smiles of the internet will be seen, as the cries of real estate go unheard. China will have another Jack Ma, but it is unlikely to see the likes of Shiyi Pan again.
- 4G charges will fall, but your phone bill won’t be any cheaper.
- Cars will become cheaper, but to obtain a license plate and finding a parking space will become harder.
- Although circulation and profit will continue to decline, the revenues of traditional media will still be satisfactory…at least better than in 2016.
- The mystery of the MH370 will come out in the wash, aviation safety once again becoming a global concern.
- More airlines will provide onboard Wi-Fi, so it will be no longer be necessary to turn off all electronic equipment after boarding. But the airline will not only expect you to immerse yourself in the TV shows, but better still, make use of the onboard shopping platform.
- An increasing number of countries will relax visa procedures for Chinese. As ever they will still stick to tax exemption but not visa-free, so please remember after purchasing, to claim the tax back when leaving the country.
- Africa will become ‘The second mainland China’. Millions of people will make the ‘Africa Dream’ come true by earning their first pot of gold by virtue of the Sino-African cooperation.
- More and more people will choose to travel by high-speed rail. Granted it is slower than airplane, its station is far from from downtown, the price of a sleeper cabin is more expensive than first-class, but no other form transportations can give travellers that feeling of gliding through this magnificent country.
- Vacationing will be more popular than group tours. To rent a car aboard, sleep on an internet friend’s sofa, broaden one’s horizons, no expense spared, the most important thing is to be like at home wherever you go.
- Fewer companies will require clocking in and out, but more bosses will talk shop after work. Now that it is impossible to prohibit employees from using their phone during office hours, bosses must commandeer their employees’ time after work.
- Those who were born after 1995 and start a business will become the legends in the new wave of pioneering, but many will be get fleeced or slapped down within a week.
- There will emerge many female entrepreneurs, ready to tell stories of how they started their business. But some of them are mistresses who rely on their lover’s capital, networks and constant guidance for success.
- It will be harder for overseas returnees to find a job. If they can’t adapt to overseas local society, then it will be hard for them to fit back into Chinese society. The largest number of overseas students are Chinese, but the job market is not responsible for arranging work.
- More and more people will use MOOC to enrol on first-class international on-line courses and pick up certificates for free. Self-study is not only common practice, but also a form of talent.
Remaining 25 to follow tomorrow…
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